• Community Projects

Against Democratic Recession: Indicators, justifications, and the power of diverse coalitions.

8 October, 2025

Democracy doesn't die overnight - it erodes slowly, quietly, and often unnoticed. A new report helps us spot the warning signs before it’s too late.

The threat to Democracy is growing worldwide, but many of us living through this democratic decline struggle to recognise it, let alone fight back. To tackle this challenge, a new report, Against Democratic Recession: Recognising Suppression of Civil Counterpower, identifies clear warning signs of democratic backsliding. Last month, we explored these indicators with democracy practitioners at an event hosted by Hub member, the Netherlands Helsinki Committee.

 

The report

Responding to the relatively new threat to democracy emerging in the Netherlands, the report sets up a schema for recognising democratic recession in its early stages. Democratic recession = the deterioration of the core elements of liberal democracy. Counterpower = the ability for various actors or institutions to monitor, advise, and sometimes block political and executive power. The problem is defined by the authors in terms of ‘recession’ and ‘suppression’ due to the nature of the threat to democracy we face: a slow, subtle, yet nevertheless fatal erosion.

From this problem definition, the authors develop nine concrete indicators of democratic recession with examples.

 

 

Insights from the field: What do democracy practitioners have to say?

Małgorzata Szuleka, Helsinki Foundation for Human Rights, Poland

According to Małgorzata, the nine indictors are very useful in tracking changes in the civic and democratic space, however she also added her own, 10th indicator. Simply put,

By this, Małgorzata means that those with the goal to undermine democratic institutions come prepared, and they often stick to a common playbook. Małgorzata’s advice is, any time we hear statements like ‘shall we revisit changing the constitution’, or ‘civil society is dominated by foreign forces’, citizens should be alerted to the suppression of civil counterpower.

 

 

Federica Vinci, D-Hub, Italy

From the Italian context, Federica highlighted common justifications for suppression of civil counterpower, including the use of national security arguments or ideology to curtail freedoms. Reflecting on the political situation in Italy, Vinci states:

She notes that despite having been elected, ideology doesn’t give any government a mandate to suppress civil liberties, and that democracy defenders in other contexts should be aware of such ideological justifications. 

 

 

Jasmijn Haak Wegman, De Goede Zaak, Netherlands

Coming from the Dutch context, Jasmijn spoke about the value of having a concrete framework of indicators, as the report has produced, and as De Goede Zaak does in their own work.

Thus, in a context where democratic recession is a relatively new trend, the indicators enable us to create a clear collection of instances of democratic suppression, in order to credibly explain to others that the trend is actually happening.

 

Five lessons for Civil Society Organisations

1. Try to avoid a failure of imagination – think about what to do if the ‘unthinkable’ did happen.

2. Those who would undermine democracy have a playbook – pay attention to it.

3. Be responsive to smaller actions before the bigger infringements come.

4. Don’t be afraid to acknowledge system failures.

5. Coalitions are challenging, yet essential.

 

The Hague Humanity Hub has recently launched a new Democracy and Rule of Law Collective which brings together diverse voices from research, policy, civil society, and business to respond to the shrinking civic space in the Netherlands. We welcome new members and encourage anyone interested to join us in building a diverse, resilient and impactful coalition of democracy defenders in The Hague.
Join the Collective

Thank you to the Netherlands Helsinki foundation for organising this event. You can read the full report here.